Despite an unfathomable amount of controversy, the current President of the United States remains the odds-on favorite to win the 2020 election in Las Vegas and at sites like Heritage Sports.
So, can Trump be dethroned? If so, will it be by the Democratic party or another from the Republican party?
The Republican Candidates
The Republican Primary isn’t nearly as crowded as the Democratic Primary. On top of that, there isn’t even really a race going on. I guess if you called it a race, it would be more like, Trump had a head start on an already clear track while all of the rest had a time-penalty start and have to run an obstacle course with the expectation to finish alongside Trump. Basically, the current President can walk his way to victory.
But what do we mean by that?
Polls did on October 16th show Trump at an average 85.8. The next closest is Walsh at a mere 2.5, and Sanford and Weld are at 2.3 apiece. The Economist and YouGov poll have Trump at 88, Walsh at just 1, Sanford at 2, and Weld at 1. This poll had by far the largest sample size, so it should be considered relevant.
So, the spread is ridiculously wide within the Republican Primary. And by the looks of it, no other Republican candidate has a chance, at least not right now.
The race is a lot closer over on the blue side of things, it’s also a lot more crowded.
At the moment Joe Biden is still leading the race. But unlike the Republicans, where Trump is on average +83, Biden is only +3 on the YouGov polls. A poll done between October 20th and 22nd shows the former Vice President to hold 24 percent of the potential votes, Elizabeth Warren is at 21 percent, Bernie Sanders at 15 percent, Buttigieg holds 8 percent, and Kamila Harris with 5 percent.
Everyone else is at 3 percent or less. But an interesting fact to note is that although Biden leads, Warren is in the best position to win the Democratic National Party.
Why is this?
Another poll that was done regarding voter loyalty in the Democratic Primary showed that only 33 percent are sticking with one candidate. Sixty-six percent said that they would support another candidate. And the majority of Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, supporters also like Elizabeth Warren.
What this means is when these other candidates who hold lesser shares of the vote drop out of the race, the majority of supporters are likely to swing over to Warren, not Biden. And with Biden only at +3, this could spell disaster for his campaign during the final stretch.
The Democratic Party could polarize around Elizabeth Warren. Also, as a former Republican and not super-liberal Democrat, Warren might pick up some of the Republican voters as well. If there is anyone who can dethrone the Don, it looks like it would be Elizabeth Warren.
She has experience – eight years as a Massachusetts Senator– and the education. As a bankruptcy law specialist, perhaps she could help to draft legislation that better define corporate bailouts and help assuage the student debt crisis.
In 2020, could we see the first female President of the United States?